预测学

出版时间:1997-09-01  出版社:石油工业出版社  作者:翁文波 著  页数:233  

内容概要

  “With precautions there will be success, otherwise that will be failure”, and “He who has no anxiousthoughts for the future will find trouble right at hand.“These Chinese proverbs all reveal to people the im-portance of forecast. Mr. Weng Wenbo believed that mordern forecast should cover a wild range, such as social forecast ( e.g.population),technical forecast (e.g. developing trend), economic Forecast (e.g.ten-dency, market, management,etc) ,and military forecast (e.g.strategy)。

书籍目录

Part I Philosophical Background2. Cognition-Philosophical Basis of Forecast3.1 Cognition and Knowledge3.2 Development andEvolution3.3 Rationale and Phenomenon, Rationalism and Phenomenalism3.4 Part and Entirety, Fractions and Whole3.5 NormaIState and AbnormaIState3.7 Continuity and DiscontinuityPart II Theory System1.1 Conservation of Abstract System1.3 AlgebraicSystem1.6 BinaryOperations1.7 Multiple Relations1.8 Commensurability2.1 Constitution of Physical System2.2 Conservation of Physical System2.4 How Are Days Counted2.5 Physical Aspect of Natural Disasters3.1 Information and Informative System3.2 Informative Deduction, Exchange, and Feedback3.3 Classification of Informative System3.4 Symmetry and Conservation in Informative System4.Distribution and Hypothetic Test for Distribution4.1 Distribution4.2 Distribution Function and Numerical Feature4.3 Multivariate Composition of Numerical Distribution4.4 Hypothetic Distribution and Hypothetic Test4.5 Selection of Confidence Level5. Forecast and Forecasting Methods5.1 Common Concept of Forecast5.2 Models and Process of Forecast5.3 Statistic Forecast5.4 Fitting5.5 Informative ForecastPart Ⅲ Practice of Forecast1.Cases of Forecast1.1 Forecast of Meteorological Disasters1.2 Forecast of China's Earthquake1.3 Forecast of Earthquakes in Foreign Countries2.Effect Analysis for Forecast of Natural Disasters2.1 Methods of Estimation2.2 Analysis of EffectivenessPart IV Forecast and Operations Research1.General Concept of Operations Research2.Junction of Forecast Theory with Operations Research and Some Cases2.1 Super Long-Range Forecast for Earthquake in Xinjiang Kurle Area,and Suggestions for Anti-Earthquake Measures in Base Construction2.2 Forecasting and Programming of National SituationsPart V Forecast and Assessment1.Forecast and Assessment2. Forecast of World Oil and Natural Gas Production3. About Natural Gas3.1 New Knowledge about Natural Gas3.2 Features of Gas Fields Distribution4. Estimation for the Trend of Natural Gas DevelopmentEpilogue My Final Words1.About the Yellow Book2.Application of Ancient Science-Reasoning of Luo Shu3.Theoretical Foundation of Forecast4.About Succession and Development of Forecasting Theory

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